Methodology
The math behind Satoshi's Clock. Expand each section for full details.
Each item uses a hybrid inflation formula that blends long-term structural trends with current CPI data, dampened by item-specific volatility:
Adjusted Inflation = Baseline + (Current − Baseline) × D
- •Baseline CAGR — Long-term structural CPI average for each item category (e.g., 3.2% for coffee, 3.8% for rent)
- •Current Inflation — Trailing 12-month CPI rate from government data (BLS)
- •Dampening (D) — 0.10 for volatile items (gasoline, eggs) to 0.40 for stable items (rent, tuition). Derived from 10-year CPI standard deviation.
Dampening values: 0.10 (gasoline, eggs) · 0.20 (food items) · 0.30 (services, entertainment) · 0.40 (rent, tuition, healthcare)
Related: Oil shocks can't cause broad inflation (on their own) — why the clock models inflation as a monetary phenomenon, not a supply-shock story. Also: The real definition of inflation — what actually drives the price level up, and why technology should make life cheaper. Also: So why do we need a growing money supply? — the policy choice behind the 2% target, and who ends up paying for it.